Quote of the day

"No matter how exceptional the talent or effort, certain things simply require time: You cannot expedite the process of producing a baby in one month by impregnating nine women." - Warren Buffett

October has been scary 💀

Both Canadian & US markets have been falling with the S&p500 down 8.61% since July 31st & the TSX down 9.5% from its peak on Feb 13th of this year. Why? We have a huge wall of worry that includes fear of high inflation, fear of rising interest rates & geopolitical wars that could potentially lead into world war III.

Earnings season 🤑

Big tech earnings is still underway with PYPL & ABNB in my portfolio reporting Wednesday. I expect both to beat, i’m watching PYPL earnings closely since that stock has been beat down to pulp. We will find out after the bell tomorrow if this stock is a value trap or value gem. On Thursday I will also be watching AAPL & SQ , if AAPL stock crashes then it will easily take the S&P 500 into deep correction territory and later into market crash territory. This is very possible since AAPL is projected to miss revenue growth by 1%. (see below)

In the Canadian market my eyes are on CNQ , ENB , BCE & Telus. ENB & Telus are in my portfolio. I think both will have okay earnings, Oil companies have been reporting poorly and Telus analysts also expect earnings to be flat. I need these stocks to show me something in the earnings report because the stock performance has been poor.

• Caterpillar slumps as slowing sales growth offsets Q3 earnings beat

• AMD reported weaker-than-expected third-quarter results that beat Wall Street estimates

• Pinterest announced better-than-expected earnings on Monday afternoon, beating profit and revenue estimates. 

• $SOFI SoFi was up 13% after beating analyst estimates for the quarter

Headlines you need to know 📰

WeWork has officially filed for bankruptcy. Dropping 42% after hours. From a $47 billion private market valuation to a $9 billion IPO via a SPAC in 2021, and now trading at $1.32 a share in after hours, dropping 99% from its peak. It was fun while it lasted…

• Canada auto-union reaches deal

• Elon Musk says Twitter was an arm of the US government and censored republicans at 10x the rate of democrats.

• Apple announces new M3 chips and cuts the price

• Elon Musk’s X says it is worth $19B one year after acquisition (FT)

• Meta pauses ads for users under 18 in Europe as it rolls out subscriptions (WSJ)

Oh Canada 🇨🇦

Canadas GDP came out today and its not pretty. Our economy has flatlined and remained stagnant. If the BoC doesn't cut rates , we go into a recession. However Canadas inflation has dropped since last month.

According to RBC, credit losses at banks will rise massively. Over 60% of all Canadian mortgages will come up for renewal in the next 3 years. Monthly mortgage payments will increase by 50% unless interest rates go down significantly.

Economics 📊

Tommorow is FOMC and the US feds are expected to raise rates. My prediction is we will have another pause. The Fed CME tool and market also predicts a 98.3% chance that we pause. However I still expect Jerome Powell to be hawkish and say what he always says “inflation is high but under control interest rates need to stay higher for longer.”

On the other hand US GDP has been growing like crazy! US TREASURY SECRETARY YELLEN: US GDP IS A GOOD STRONG NUMBER, THE ECONOMY IS DOING VERY WELL.

BD investing Discord 👥

As you all know I have a investing & trading group on Discord. This month we won 23 out of 26 trades ! All my track records can be found on my website or Instagram Bdinvesting.org. I want to highlight some amazing wins from the members (below)

Meme Spot 🤣